Well, usually. It’s not very risky to predict that the Republicans are going to take over control of the House of Representatives in the November elections. It’s not risky to predict that the Republicans are going to make major gains in the Senate either. It’s a bit risky to predict that they are going to take control of the Senate in November, although that’s possible.
A month is a lifetime in politics, where the 24 hour news cycle can ruin a candidate practically over night. Or it can boost a relative unknown to major figure status.
As a result I’m always hesitant to make political predictions although I have with done so in the past with mixed results. So, I’m going out on a limb here to make a political prediction.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will resign from her post some time between the November elections and the first of the year. At the time she will down play talk of running against the incumbent President for the 2012 nomination mouthing all of the usual platitudes about what an honor it was to serve, that she wants to spend more time with her family, and so on. No doubt, she’ll author another book. Then in the late Spring, looking at a profoundly unpopular President, she will “reluctantly” conclude that she must run for President to help her fellow citizens. And the great game for her will continue.
That’s a pretty bold prediction.
But it sounds ’bout right.
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OH, I SO hope you are wrong, but I am so afraid that you are correct. She did that same crap wth her move to New York and constantly saying that she had “no plans to run” then, kind of creepy like, she is on the ballot. She is so slimy. I wish she would go back the where she came from. She is a legend in her own mind and the country would be better off if she just wrote books and stayed out of politics. I can ignore her books. She is an out of touch elitist.
There, I said it, and I feel so much better. These blog thingys are truly stress relievers!
UU
I would not be surprised at all… Not at all…
I don’t doubt for a second that her ambition for the Oval Office has not subsided one iota. That said, however, it would be an EXTREMELY difficult sell to the Democratic Party elites and faithful to ask them to toss aside a celebrity incumbent minority President- even for a woman. There’s just too many advantages to already being President.
Except if you look at his approval/disapproval numbers, and the falling support even within his own party. She’s very popular, although I don’t see the attraction, with the Democrat elites who are slowly figuring out tha Obama is not an empty suit, but in fact is a hole in the air. Her book will of course be highly critical of him and his administration. Plus she’ll have Bill to campaign for her again. It wasn’t enough last time, but it will be enough this time. In large part because while the faithful may remain faithful, the large pool of independents that any candidate needs to win will not vote for Obama again.
He still had 92% approval with blacks… who by themselves can’t elect anybody, but without a real good chunk of them bolting to Clinton, that candidacy goes nowhere. Just because they were a major factor in BJ’s election doesn’t mean they’ll dump “one of their own,” even for his ol’ lady.
Historically, only 11% of eligible black voters vote in Presidential elections. In 2008, 14% voted, of which about 92% voted for Obama. What elected Obama in 2008 was independent white voters who broke heavily for him and against McCain. This year, that same vital demographic is breaking for Republicans. Which is why the Democrats are getting their heads handed to them, will lose the House and just possibly the Senate. What happens over the next year or so will determine if that block will vote for Hillary, Obama, or the Republican in 2012.
I believe your crystal ball is crystal clear. Ugghhh.